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Australia expects bumper harvest

China Daily | Updated: 2008-02-19 07:34

Australia is set for a bumper wheat harvest this year following good rain in the last three months, according to National Australia Bank, which expects the crop to jump to at least 23 million tons.

That would be up 74 percent from a drought-affected return in the latest harvest, the bank said in an agribusiness outlook for 2008/09, the first forecast for the wheat crop so far.

"At this stage there's a fairly significant upside to that value, which was based on fairly conservative yield estimates," NAB agribusiness economist Frank Drum said of the wheat forecast.

"As long as seasonal conditions improve, we'll probably be looking at a higher number," he said.

Drum said the wheat crop could reach up to 26 million tons, threatening the record 26.1 million tons set in 2003/04.

Total winter crop production for 2008/09 could rise by 65 percent to about 36 million tons, Drum said.

Farmers have enjoyed good rainfall, following a severe drought in recent years which has decimated Australian crops in three of the last six years.

A steady improvement in seasonal conditions together with high grains prices point to an expanded winter cropping program in 2008/09, NAB said.

The latest Bureau of Meteorology seasonal outlook for February through to April is for above average rain across much of Western Australia, while eastern states have a 50 percent chance of above average rain, the bank said.

It cautioned that an increase in winter crop plantings remained contingent on follow-up rainfall throughout autumn.

Improved seasonal conditions had boosted pasture availability and were expected to encourage livestock rebuilding throughout 2008/09, the bank said.

Saleyard demand from restockers and feedlotters had increased, resulting in higher saleyard prices, it said.

Production of beef, mutton and lamb for 2008/09 is forecast to fall by 4 percent, if rebuilding continues, while wool production is forecast to decline by 3 percent.

The outlook for irrigated production in the Murray-Darling Basin remained uncertain, but recent flooding in central Queensland state signaled an expected increase in the area planted to cotton in 2008/09, it said.

Australia is one of the largest farm exporters in the world, with exports forecast at around A$26.8 billion in 2007/08.

Agencies

(China Daily 02/19/2008 page16)

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