Quota removal will benefit partners
2004-03-25
China Daily
China's major trade partners will benefit rather than be hurt by lowering trade barriers to China's textiles and clothing after the country joins the World Trade Organization (WTO), a study co-ordinated by the World Bank and China's State Council Development Research Centre discovered.
Among China's trade partners, "the European Union and North American economies that abolish their export quotas on textiles and clothing, and increase their direct trade with China will gain the most in absolute terms," according to "China and the WTO: Accession, Policy Reform & Poverty Reduction Strategies," which will be published by Oxford University Press this year.
In one chapter, World Bank economists Elena Ianchovichina and William Martin examined the impact of China's WTO accession to the nation and its trading partners.
A considerable part of the chapter concerns trade in textiles and clothing as "the arrangements for textiles and clothing are particularly important elements of China's accession."
The two writers conducted quantitative analysis and concluded that nearly half of North American and EU gains from China's accession can be attributed to the elimination of the quotas they imposed against the nation's exports of textiles and clothing - quotas that cost North America and the EU in terms of efficiency.
Unlike most other exporters with developing economies, China was excluded from the liberalizing elements of the Uruguay Round Agreement on textiles and clothing, which means higher costs for its textile exports.
A major gain for China in entering the WTO means that it will benefit from the Uruguay Round Agreement clause, which stipulates that all existing quotas on textiles and clothing are to be phased out by 2005.
However, China's accession agreement includes a Transitional Product Safeguard mechanism that allows China's trading partners to take safeguard actions under rules that are more permissive for protection than the usual safeguard rules of the WTO.
"These provisions have the regrettable implication of introducing a new form of protection against China," the book said.
Under the product-specific safeguard mechanism, which mainly targets textiles and clothing, China's trade partners can enact protection measures if they deem the influx of Chinese exports are damaging their local industries.
Answering China Daily's questions by e-mail, Martin said abuse of this mechanism could "create extremely serious trade disruptions."
"China's trading partners need to refrain from using these measures," he said.
The unpublished book said that China's WTO accession will have a significant impact on the levels and patterns of global trade.
Accession will make China a much bigger player in world markets for three reasons: the rapid growth and structural change of its economy, the liberalization undertaken in preparation for WTO accession, and the liberalization undertaken after accession in 2001.
The liberalization undertaken after 2001 will contribute to an increase in China's share in world exports, from 4.4 per cent to 7.8 per cent in 2007.
Similarly, China's share in world import markets will rise from 5.8 per cent in 2001 to 6.4 per cent by 2007, according to estimates by the two economists.
The world as a whole and key developing economies that trade directly with China all benefit from China's protection cuts and its demand for their exports.
The country will become an important destination for products from other economies. China's imports of beverages and tobacco will more than double, followed by imports of food products, textiles, agricultural goods, automobile parts and commercial services.
What is particularly noteworthy is that the unpublished book said that relative to its size of economy, Taiwan, among all the major trade partners of the Chinese mainland, will be the biggest beneficiary of the mainland's WTO accession.
The benefits for Taiwan come both as consequences of its own liberalization, and through strengthened trade links with the mainland.
"The expansion of textiles, light manufacturing, petrochemicals and equipment exports of Taiwan will be driven almost entirely by demand for these products from the Chinese mainland," it said.
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