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EXPERT'S TAKE | LAU NAI-KEUNG
If a survey is to be undertaken about the most striking difference before the handover in 1997 and today, I think the most common answer is that Hong Kong is not what it used to be.
Today, the SAR's GDP is less than 1/25 of the national GDP whereas in 1997 it was as high as one-tenth. In those days the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar was much higher than the yuan and people flocked to Shenzhen for shopping.
Now it is the other way round. Many Shenzhen residents cross the border regularly to Hong Kong for bargain hunting. Guangdong's GDP superseded Hong Kong's in 2003, and today it is three times as large, with Shenzhen's forecast to follow suit in 2015.
Tung Chee-hwa, first SAR chief executive, has this famous quip: "If Hong Kong fares well, so will China; and if China fares well, Hong Kong will fare better." Now everybody will agree that if China fares well, so will Hong Kong; and if Hong Kong fares well, China will fare better.
Without China as the world's No 2 economy, Hong Kong will never reach the level of New York and London, the so-called NewLonKong, as a global financial center. With China as the global trade leader, Hong Kong's container terminal, even without any additional investments in the past two decades, still manages to hold the No 3 position in the world, with Shenzhen as second, and Shanghai as No 1.
There is now practically no border between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, with more than 400,000 people crossing it daily. About 2,000 are students living in Shenzhen and studying in Hong Kong. Soon, a unified debit card will be applicable on both sides of the border for a seamless integration of consumers. The two cities may merge into one someday to become a mega city of more than 20 million people. With high-speed trains linking the two metropolises, any two spots are within half an hour's distance.
And this is only part of the integration of the nine cities and two SARs in the Pearl River Delta under a guideline rectified by the State Council, and a framework agreement signed between Hong Kong and Guangdong covering more than 50 million people - some of the richest in the country. This world-class city cluster within one hour of travel will rival those around New York and Tokyo and will create a regional market that will propel Hong Kong to new heights.
Lau Nai-keung is a member of the Committee for the Basic Law of HKSAR of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress.
(China Daily 06/01/2011 page67)
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