Potential of Sino-Japanese ties

By Liang Yunxiang (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-10-21 13:57

New Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama will make his first visit to China today. His visit follows an epochal change in the Japanese political landscape. In the Aug 30 general election, the Liberal Democratic Party, which had almost ruled Japan since 1955 without interruption, suffered a fiasco, while the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which had been an opposition party for 13 years, won in a landslide. Chinese people want to know how the momentous change will impact them and what the new prime minister and his cabinet will bring to the Sino-Japanese relations.

The change in attitude of Japan's new administration to China has been somewhat positive. The change, however, is not revolutionary. The basic framework and the structure of the Sino-Japanese relations will hardly undergo sweeping change.

It is difficult to describe the current Sino-Japanese relations with a simple "good" or "bad." On the one hand, relations between the two Asian giants are very close, especially on economic and cultural fronts. On the other hand, thorny problems remain, particularly in the political and security realms in addition to the feeling among the masses toward each other's nationals.

Since October 2006 when then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited China, the two countries have sought to improve bilateral relations, and this process is ongoing. Both have maintained strategic and mutually beneficial relations and added new folds into the relations. At the same time, however, some structural issues remain and resolutions to these issues do not seem possible in the foreseeable future.

The future of the Sino-Japanese relations hinge on how long the DPJ will remain in office. It also depends on many other factors, such as the rise of China, the role of the United States, nationalist wings on both sides, national interests and an understanding of history among other issues.

The rapid economic development of China prompts Japan to value China and enhance bilateral economic cooperation. On political and security fronts, however, it will keep a vigilant eye on China, and even sometimes clamor about the so-called "China threat". It is not in the best interest for the US, still the most important ally of Japan, to see China and Japan grow too close. But the US would also hope that the two nations would avoid any tension and confrontations, too. Its existence in East Asia and relations with China will impact and constrain the Sino-Japanese relations.

Since the nationalist wings in both China and Japan often vent their anger towards each other, the governments of the two countries should temper them. The nationalist trends, however, are controllable and consequently won't severely harm relations. The ideologies of China and Japan are very different, too, and hence frictions may occur. Of course, these frictions are controllable and won't lead to large-scale conflicts.

The disputes on territory and maritime resources may be the most thorny issue in the Sino-Japanese relations. Because the issue is about fundamental national interests, both sides are unlikely to make substantial concessions. Frictions may take place on this issue, too. But at least both sides have reached a common ground that states that direct conflicts, especially along military lines, must be avoided.

An understanding of history is also an issue that affects bilateral relations and afflicts the attitude of the Chinese toward Japan. Though it is hard to be completely resolved, it can be contained if both governments make an effort to pacify the attitudes of Chinese people.

The diversity of East Asian countries gives rise to the relative backwardness in regional cooperation and integration. China and Japan still employ traditional schools of thought, characterized by nation states as the basic unit and the mentality of a zero-sum game to deal with bilateral relations. High-speed economic development of most East Asian countries as well as the peaceful environment in the region, however, is spurring regional stakeholders to be more cooperative. This trend is a positive sign in relaxing frictions between China and Japan, increase their mutual responsibility and improve bilateral relations.

The most salient move of the new Japanese administration is to attach more importance in its political agenda to China, which could be gleaned from its understanding of history between the two nations and call for the new administration to foster regional cooperation with China. Members of the new cabinet have openly declared that they won't pay pilgrimage to the Yasukuni Shrine, and intend to build another commemorating facility to completely resolve the problem. That attitude will definitely help to ameliorate the Sino-Japanese relations.

On many occasions, Prime Minister Hatoyama has suggested strengthening cooperation with China and other Asian countries as steps to build an East Asian community. Though the proposal of an East Asian community has not been hashed out, it is a positive outlook in the long run for cooperation in East Asia. Through multilateral cooperation in the region, the Sino-Japanese relations could create sustainable momentum.

The author is a professor at the School of International Studies, Peking University.