China's greenhouse gas emissions to peak years ahead of goal: report

Smoke billows from a factory in Dezhou, Shandong province. To reach mandatory efficiency goals, the government had to take some extreme steps, including power cuts and limits on electricity supply in 2010. [Provided to China Daily]

LONDON - China's greenhouse gas emissions could peak over five years earlier than expected, which will contribute to the effort of curbing global warming, according to a report jointly published Monday by two institutes at the London School of Economics.

Analyzing trends in the key emitting sectors, researchers conclude that China's greenhouse gas emissions are unlikely to peak as late as 2030, the upper limit set by the Chinese government last year, and are much more likely to peak by 2025, or even earlier than that, the report stated.

The researchers also say that if China's greenhouse gas emissions peak by 2025, they would reach between 12.5 and 14 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. This finding suggests it is increasingly likely that the world will avoid global warming of more than two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

China's transformation has profound implications for the global economy, and "greatly increases the prospects for keeping global greenhouse gas emissions within relatively safe limits," according to the report.

"The United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris later this year will be more successful if governments everywhere understand the extent of change in China, its implications for global emissions, and the positive impact that China's clean industrial development, investment and innovation plans are likely to have on global markets for clean goods and services," it added.

In a joint statement issued during a November visit last year to Beijing by U.S. President Barack Obama, China pledged to achieve the peaking of carbon dioxide emissions around 2030, and increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20 percent by 2030.