Opinion

Growth to retain momentum

By Yi Xianrong (China Daily)
Updated: 2010-06-28 07:58

Economic recovery in the US, Japan and other emerging markets, and structural adjustments and productivity gains in export-oriented units contributed to this robust growth momentum.

Concern that the debt crisis in Europe is likely to choke China's exports in the coming months, thereby dampening GDP growth prospects, will also prove to be exaggerated.

The crisis in Europe is certain to affect exports, but that should be limited in scope.

The sovereign debt crisis has so far been confined to some small European nations and is therefore very different from the 2008 US financial crisis.

Germany and France, the two leading economies in the European bloc, have not suffered much in the current crisis.

The crisis in the US, on the other hand, had crippled the financial system of the world's largest economy. And, the economic slump soon spread to the rest of the world due to the predominantly dollar-dominated international financial system.

China's domestic consumption has also kept pace with its export and investment boom, growing by 18 percent year-on-year in the first five months.

In this scenario, the chief problem is not any likely failure in achieving the targeted growth rate, but that a speeding rate of growth may lead to economic overheating.

Whether the realty sector will be slapped with a fresh round of macro-economic controls is also a big concern.

China must not budge from the current regulatory curbs, given the fact that the property bubble has not only made homes unaffordable, but has also turned into a major risk for the financial system.

If the government can resist vested interests and push forward the already effective curbs on the housing market then any likely impact from a housing bust can be minimized.

Regarding the consumer price index (CPI), the country's central bank has enough ammunition to check its upward trajectory.

Improved economic conditions at home and abroad will ease pressure on the CPI in the latter half of the year.

To be sure, extant uncertainties are unlikely to scuttle the growth momentum of the Chinese economy.

The author is a researcher with the Institute of Finance and Banking under the Chinese Academy of

Social Sciences

(China Daily 06/28/2010 page9)