Sound economy leads sustained recovery

By Si Tingting (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-09-12 09:00

China's industrial output, fixed asset investment and retail sales accelerated at a faster pace in August, pointing to a stronger economic recovery.

China's industrial output expanded by 12.3 percent in August from a year earlier, compared with a 10.8 percent expansion in July, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a statement on Friday.

Investment in urban fixed assets rose 33 percent in the first eight months of the year, on a par with growth of 32.9 percent in the January-July period.

Retail sales, the main measure of consumer spending, rose 15.4 percent in August compared with the same month last year, the NBS report said.

"Based on this rosy economic data, I'm more confident that China will realize its annual GDP growth of 8 percent," NBS spokesman Li Xiaochao said, adding that domestic demand, fueled largely by government investment, is driving the stronger growth momentum.

Spurred by rising food and fuel prices in August, China's consumer price deflation has likely bottomed out, but the negative growth of consumer prices is still keeping the inflation pressure subdued. This gives the government more room to continue its "moderately loose" monetary policy.

The consumer price index (CPI), the main gauge of inflation, declined just 1.2 percent from a year earlier, marking the seventh consecutive monthly decline and the first month-on-month rise in six months. Meanwhile, the producer price index fell by 7.9 percent last month, compared to a sharper decline of 8.2 percent in July, according to the report.

Pork prices, which largely led the last surge in the consumer price index in 2008, witnessed significant growth last month. Pork is the main food staple for Chinese and food prices account for one-third of China's CPI.

According to a survey by the Ministry of Agriculture of a total of 470 farmers' markets across the country, a surge in feed prices has significantly driven up the prices of meat, eggs and milk. As of Aug 24, the price of live pigs had risen for 10 consecutive weeks, marking a cumulative increase of 23.1 percent. At the same time, egg prices rose for five weeks straight for a total of 6.2 percent.

"While CPI should begin to rise later in the year, inflation should be moderate, as producers and consumers alike continue to feel the effects of industrial overcapacity and unemployment," said Jing Ulrich, chairwoman of China Equities at JP Morgan.

However, Li Xiaochao ruled out the possibility of grain price inflation later this year and early next year.

Without significant inflation pressure, the government will likely keep its current policy stance unchanged for a while, or at least until the end of this year, said Mingcun Sun of Nomura International (HK) Ltd.

Officials at the People's Bank of China said on Friday that M2, the broadest measure of money supply, rose by a record 28.53 percent, as the central bank maintained a "moderately loose" stance on monetary supply.

New loans edged higher to 410.5 billion yuan ($60.1 billion) in August from 355.9 billion yuan in July. This brings new lending in 2009 to 8.13 trillion yuan, up 162.5 percent from the first eight months of 2008.

Lending data showed that credit is being channeled more into mid- and long-term loans as opposed to short-term bill financing, meaning more of that cash is likely being put into actual investments.