March trade figures point to yearly gain

By Ding Qingfen (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-04-11 08:12

They would have been bad figures half a year go, but they are now regarded as light at the end of the tunnel.

Analysts say that China's latest import and export statistics, though still in negative territory, point the way toward gains later in the year.

China's imports fell 25.1 percent year-on-year in March to $71.73 billion, the fifth consecutive month to witness a double-digit decrease, according to figures released on Friday by the General Administration of Customs.

Meanwhile, the country's exports fell 17.1 percent to $90.29 billion, a milder fall than the previous month's record of 25.7 percent.

The trade surplus stood at $18.56 billion, up 41.2 percent on a yearly basis, and up as much as 287 percent compared with the previous month.

Exports of products from labor-intensive industries, including garments, bags, shoes and furniture, showed net increases, with bags leading the pack with 11.7 percent year-on-year, and garments notching up 9.9 percent.

Exports of electrical machinery, grain, fertilizers and steel continued to fall in year-on-year terms, although they were up on the previous month.

Dong Xian'an, an economist from Southwest Securities, a major Chinese securities brokerage, said the change in March was largely due to the US economy.

The analyst cited US Department of the Commerce figures showing that the sales volume of residential properties in the US rose 4.7 percent from a month earlier, the highest in the past 10 months, and orders for durable consumer goods surged 3.4 percent, the first monthly growth since last August and the highest since December 2007.

Dong remarked that, as the US economy starts to become more stable this should be reflected in China's trade figures.

Indeed, as shown by the March figures, China's trade with its three largest partners, the European Union, the US and Japan, all increased from a month earlier.

Trade with the EU increased 21.2 percent to $26.45 billion, with the US, 25.8 percent to $22.65 billion, and with Japan, 19.1 percent to $17.52 billion.

Commenting on the significance of the March trade figures, Su Chang, an economist with China Economic Business Monitor, predicted that China's foreign trade would begin to see positive growth around the last quarter of the year.

Dong said the first half will see a drop in foreign trade ranging from 10 to 15 percent, "but for the second half, there will be growth up to 10 percent".

As for the trade surplus, Dong said the yearly record would be no less than last year, and will be around $300 billion.