China PPI up 2% in Nov, lowest since mid-2006

(Xinhua)
Updated: 2008-12-10 21:09

BEIJING -- China's producer price index (PPI), a measure of inflation at the factory level, decelerated sharply to an annual rise of 2 percent in November, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced on Wednesday, prompting worries about the fast-slowing economy and rising deflation risks.

It was the slowest pace for the PPI since May 2006, the NBS said.

The PPI rose 6.6 percent in October, the third month in a row in which wholesale-level price inflation slowed. The PPI peaked at 10.1 percent in August, when China was experiencing mounting inflation pressure.

"The rapidly falling PPI is a sign that the economy has been slowing fast," the US-based bank Merrill Lynch said in a report.

The slowdown was mainly caused by mining and raw materials. Producer prices for the mining sector rose 6.6 percent year-on-year in November, dramatically down from 22.7 percent in October. Those for raw materials rose 0.4 percent, down from 9 percent in October.

Wholesale prices of consumer goods fluctuated less dramatically, rising 2.1 percent year-on-year last month, down from 3.1 percent in October. The NBS is expected to release the consumer price index (CPI) figure for November on Thursday.

"The larger-than-expected November PPI figure was mainly a result of falling commodity prices, especially global crude prices," said Haitong Securities analyst Liu Tiejun.

Merrill Lynch said the latest PPI figure was below its earlier forecast of 3.8 percent and the 4.5-percent median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Merrill Lynch forecast that both the PPI and CPI would show declines in the coming months, which would give the government "more room" to conduct an active monetary policy and step up stimulus spending.

The PPI figure was the latest in a series of reports indicating a sharp economic turnaround within just a few months.

China's gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 9 percent in the third quarter, down from 10.1 percent in the second quarter and 10.6 percent in the first quarter.

The People's Bank of China, or the central bank, cut borrowing costs three times within six weeks through the end of October.

Merrill Lynch said it expected no more rate cuts until next year, when it said the central bank would also lower banks' reserve requirement ratio.

The PPI from January to November rose 7.6 percent from a year earlier, compared with 8.2 percent in the 10 months through October, according to the NBS.