China's
blistering economic growth will cool slightly this year but should still expand
nearly 10 percent, driven by exports and investment, the World Bank said
Wednesday.
But the country's trade imbalance remains a concern as exports continue
to outstrip imports, the bank said in its quarterly report on China's economy.
The World Bank said the economy should grow by 9.6 percent in 2007, down from
last year's 10.7 percent growth, its highest rate since 1995.
Exports are likely to expand by 19.8 percent in 2007, while imports are
projected to grow 17.5 percent, it said.
Generating Demand
China is under pressure to shift the engine of its economic growth to
domestic consumer demand from an over-reliance on exports and investment, which
makes the country vulnerable to sudden drop in demand for Chinese goods or a
global slowdown.
"China's internal macro challenges remain manageable, but the external
imbalance is on the rise. Thus, policy measures that address domestic concerns
could ideally also reduce the external imbalance," said the Washington-based
international lender.
But the bank said investment would remain strong "while boosting consumption
will remain challenging, particularly in rural areas."
"China's industry, investment and export-based growth model has become
problematic because of trade tensions and environmental and resource
constraints," it said.
Those tensions include a trade surplus -- which hit a record $177.5 billion
last year, up 74 percent from the previous year -- that has strained ties with
Washington and other trade partners who say Beijing has not done enough to let
its currency appreciate.
Yuan Appreciation
China has allowed the yuan to rise gradually against the dollar since cutting
a direct link to the dollar 18 months ago and raising the yuan's value 2.1
percent. Since then, the yuan has appreciated about 4.3 percent against the
dollar.
The flood of export revenues is adding difficulties for Beijing to keep
inflation in check, however, the bank said that in the medium term "a
significant surge in inflation seems unlikely."
The government raised interest rates twice last year and imposed curbs on
real estate, auto manufacturing and other industries to slow a surge in
investment, but the report said a risk of rapid investment growth
remained.