SYDNEY - Western nations must prepare for a future dominated by China
and India, whose rapid economic rise will soon fundamentally alter the balance
of power, former World Bank chief James Wolfensohn has warned.
Wealthy countries were failing to understand the impact of the invevitable
growth of the two Asian powerhouses, Wolfensohn said in the 2006 Wallace Wurth
Memorial Lecture at the University of New South Wales at the weekend.
Former World Bank chief James
Wolfensohn has warned that Western nations must prepare for a future
dominated by China and India, whose rapid economic rise will soon
fundamentally alter the balance of power. [AFP]
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"It's a world that is going to be
in the hands of these countries which we now call developing," said
Australian-born Wolfensohn, who held the top job at the global development bank
for a decade until last year.
Rich nations needed to try to capitalise on the inevitable emergence of what
would become the engine of the world's economic activity before it was too late,
he said.
"Most people in the rich countries don't really look at what's happening in
these large developing countries," said Wolfensohn, who is now chairman of
Citigroup International Advisory Board and his own investment and advisory firm.
Within 25 years, the combined gross domestic products of China and India
would exceed those of the Group of Seven wealthy nations, he said.
"This is not a trivial advance, this is a monumental advance."
Wolfensohn said that somewhere between 2030 and 2040, China would become the
largest economy in the world, leaving the United States behind.
By 2050, China's current US$2 trillion GDP was set to balloon to 48.6
trillion, while that of India, whose economy weighs in at under a trillion
dollars, would hit 27 trillion, he said, citing projections by investment bank
Goldman Sachs.
In comparison, the US's 13 trillion dollar income would expand to only 37
trillion -- 10 trillion behind China.
"You will have in the growth of these countries a 22 times growth between now
and the year 2050 and the current rich countries will grow maybe 2.5 times."
In light of these forecasts, it was clear that Western nations and Australia
were not investing enough in educating the next generation to be able to take
advantage of the coming realignment, he said.
"The fact that not enough of our young people are preparing themselves with
knowledge, experience, residence and language to deal certainly with China,
although India has the benefit of an English language, it does seem to me that
it presents a formidable challenge."
Wolfensohn pointed to both China's and India's recent substantial investments
in Africa as an example of how the two emerging giants were exercising their
increasing clout on the global stage.
"Within the last two weeks the world has been put on notice that Africa is no
longer the basket case that everybody had historically thought it was but is now
front and centre in terms of development by India and China."
The phenomenal rally by the two countries was a return to form rather than a
novelty, he said, as they together had accounted for 50 percent of global GDP
from the 1500s until the industrial revolution reduced that to between five and
seven percent.