The centre, which made the forecast in a report published by the official China Securities Journal on Monday, has forecast China's gross domestic product will rise 10.5 percent in 2006.

China's GDP has grown 10 percent or more every year since 2003, after rising 9.1 percent in 2002.

The centre cited both domestic and global reasons.

"The world economy is likely to grow steadily or slow slightly, with average global oil prices slipping from 2006. Domestic cooling steps will be implemented and further fine tuning is expected to continue," it said.

"Under these conditions, GDP will increase by 9.5 percent, one percentage point slower than in 2006, with a potential growth range between 8 percent and 10 percent," it said.

Growth in exports will slow by nearly 10 percentage points to 15 percent while import growth will fall by 7.5 percentage points to 14 percent, it said. China's trade surplus is projected at around $176.9 billion in 2007.

The centre proposed that growth in broad M2 money supply should be limited to 16 percent, with new loans totalling 3 trillion yuan ($381 billion) and particularly strict controls on medium- and long-term lending. ($1=7.8645 Yuan)