China's yuan fell after central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said the nation
will move ``gradually'' to make the currency more flexible, disappointing some
investors expecting greater gains to help slow the economy.
``On flexibility, it's not enough, but we're gradually increasing
flexibility,'' Zhou told reporters yesterday at the annual meeting of central
bankers at the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland.
``Demand and supply relation is playing a greater and greater role.''
U.S. lawmakers blame an undervalued yuan for the flood of cheap Chinese goods
entering the U.S., bloating its trade deficit and propping up China's surplus.
China's economy grew an annual 10.3 percent in the first quarter, the fastest
among the world's 20 biggest economies, helped by exports.
``We can be reasonably safe to assume that the pace of appreciation is going
to be very, very gradual and it's probably going to be the scenario for next
year,'' said Jan Lambregts, head of research at Rabobank Groep in Singapore.
The yuan weakened 0.02 percent to 8.0022 per dollar as of 3:30 p.m. in
Shanghai, cutting gains to 1.3 percent since China revalued the currency on July
21, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency on June 22 rose to the
highest since China ended the dollar peg.
The central bank today announced a weaker reference rate for yuan trading
amid declines in Asian currencies such as the South Korean won and Philippine
peso, and a third weekly drop in the yen last week.
Exports
The U.S. trade deficit with China reached an all-time high of $201.6 billion
last year. The Asian nation's overall trade surplus last month grew to $13
billion, compared with $10.5 billion in April.
``China is very cautious because it's afraid that if it appreciates the yuan
too much, it may hurt the export sector,'' Lambregts said.
A strengthening currency makes goods more expensive overseas and imports
cheaper, helping to narrow China's trade surplus, said Qing Wang, a senior
currency strategist at Bank of America Corp. in Hong Kong.
China would benefit from greater flexibility in the yuan, U.S. Treasury
Undersecretary for International Affairs Tim Adams said in Tokyo on June 16.
Money supply grew the most in four months in May, the central bank said on
June 14. M2, the broadest measure that includes cash and all deposits, rose 19.1
percent from a year ago after an 18.9 percent increase in April.
`China's Own Good'
A widening trade surplus, rising foreign investment and capital inflows
betting on further yuan appreciation are boosting China's foreign-exchange
reserves. The holdings gained 32.8 percent from a year ago to $875.1 billion at
the end of March, and overtook Japan's as the world's largest in February.
``China's government should let the currency float because huge amounts of
speculative money are now in China and causing some distortions in the
economy,'' Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc., said at a conference
organized by Beijing University on June 24. ``It's for China's own good to let
the currency float.''
Rogers is the author of the book ``Hot Commodities.'' He's also the
co-founder of the Quantum hedge fund with billionaire investor George Soros in
the 1970s. Soros foresaw the start of the commodity rally in 1999.
Allowing greater yuan flexibility will help reduce pressure on China to
purchase foreign exchange, the state-run People's Daily reported, citing Yu
Yongding, a member of the central bank's monetary policy committee.
Keep Yuan Stable
The People's Bank of China currently purchases foreign currencies to help
keep the yuan stable, and the central bank has issued Treasury bills to mop up
the excess liquidity, Yu said, according to the newspaper.
A decline in foreign-exchange purchases will reduce pressure on the central
bank to sell bills, the People's Daily quoted Yu as saying.
The central bank on June 16 told local lenders to raise the ratio of reserves
they must set aside by half a percentage point to 8 percent to curb credit
growth, less than two months after it increased borrowing costs for the first
time since 2004.
The People's Bank of China reiterated on June 19 that it will ``further curb
excessive loan growth'' and control ``rapid investment growth.''
China's Zhou on June 15 said he would sell more securities to pull money from
the financial system.
The central bank fixed the reference rate for yuan trading at 8.0038 against
the U.S. dollar today, compared with a close of 8.0002 on June 23 on the
interbank currency market.
It calculates a daily rate by taking a weighted average of quotes from
commercial banks designated to act as market makers in the currency. The yuan is
allowed to trade by up to 0.3 percent against the dollar either side of the
so-called central parity rate.
Exchange-based trading in the yuan ends at 3:30 p.m., while direct dealing
between banks continues for two hours. The yuan closed at 8.0020 at 5:30 p.m.,
according to the Web site of the China Foreign Exchange Trade System in
Shanghai.