If the United States persuades China to push up the value of its currency,
there could be some unintended consequences: imports of $300 shoes and
computer-controlled machine tools from China instead of T-shirts and plastic
toys.
In the short run, a stronger currency may encourage China to buy more General
Electric turbines and Microsoft computer programs from the United States. That
is why officials in Washington have pushed China for several years to allow the
currency, the yuan, to rise sharply in value. The topic is likely to be near the
top of the agenda when President Hu Jintao of China meets President Bush in
Washington on Thursday.
A currency appreciation would make Chinese exports more expensive in foreign
markets and foreign goods more competitive in China.
The yuan has risen against the dollar by 3.3 percent since July, and already
there are side effects: businesses across China are concluding that their
survival may depend on following Japanese and South Korean companies up the
economic ladder as quickly as possible, selling more advanced products with
fatter profit margins.
As a result, China is gradually moving from competing with countries like
Thailand and Indonesia to vying with South Korea, southern Europe and
eventually, with the likes of Germany, Japan and the United States.
The Hunan Huasheng Industrial and Trading Company, a 15,000-employee
manufacturer in central China that produces shirts, pants and skirts made from
linen and ramie, has invested in better sewing and cutting equipment. Higher
quality has allowed it to shift from supplying Wal-Mart to manufacturing for
Gap, Perry Ellis and Liz Claiborne, said Jeff Mo, Hunan Huasheng's vice
president. "We are competing with the Koreans," he said.
Guangzhou Light Holdings Footwear, a large maker of shoes from synthetic
material, is stepping up the quality and output of its genuine leather shoes.
"Our future competitors will be the Italians because they occupy the high-class
market," said Leo Cheng, the company's deputy general manager.
Guangdong New Zhong Yuan Ceramics in a nearby city, Foshan, has started
advertising its most expensive ceramic tiles around the world in competition
with Spanish and Italian products. Making less expensive tiles has become less
attractive, partly because the yuan has risen, but also because wage increases
have been running at 10 percent a year. "That's why we're switching to
higher-value-added products," said Stephen Huo, the general manager of its
export department. "If we stuck to the low-end products, we won't make profits."
The biggest industry, automaking, is preparing for a similar shift. Until the
last year, China mainly exported extremely cheap cars, costing under $5,000
apiece, to Africa and the Middle East, especially Syria.
But last summer, Honda started sending compact cars to Europe from a factory
on the outskirts of Guangzhou, while a range of Chinese companies including
Chery, Geely, Lifan and Shanghai Automotive are preparing to start shipments to
the United States and Europe in the next two years.
While the shift toward more valuable products poses a competitive challenge
to industrial nations, it may help start to solve another American issue that is
likely to be a priority during President Hu's visit: the protection of
copyrights, patents and other intellectual property. Chinese companies may want
to protect the valuable brands and designs they are developing themselves.
Hunan Huasheng used to overproduce when it received orders for brand-name
merchandise from Western companies and sell the extra shirts and other garments
locally. But the company increasingly appreciates the power of a brand name in
commanding clothing prices well above the cost of production. It has stopped
overproducing and does not even add brand labels to many garments at the
factory.
Instead, Hunan Huasheng arranges for them to be sewn on later to reduce the
risk that the garments will be misappropriated before they leave the country,
Mr. Mo said.
Guangdong New Zhong Yuan Ceramics is registering its tile designs with
foreign governments. "When we have a new product, we apply for a patent before
we produce it," Mr. Huo said.
American officials have lately been talking less about currency values and
more about intellectual property. But in China, the value of the currency
remains a bigger concern, and President Hu called again on Wednesday for a
"basically stable" currency.
China revalued the yuan by 2.1 percent on July 21, and has allowed it to
appreciate by a further 1.2 percent since then, a pace of change that critics
describe as glacial. But even this much has affected industries with already
slender profit margins, like garment manufacturing, in which a few big Western
retailers like Wal-Mart can play off companies and countries against each other
to find the best price.
"We are in despair" because of the yuan's appreciation, said Sherman Wang,
general manager of the Hangzhou Kailai Neckwear and Apparel Company, in an
interview on Wednesday at the Canton Fair, a big trade exposition that attracts
businesses from across China. "It's difficult for us to raise prices."
Many experts contend that higher wages would force China to move toward
higher-priced goods, even if the yuan did not gain value. Indeed, that may
already be happening, if only gradually. At Hunan Huasheng, Mr. Mo said that
wages in Changsha, an inland city in central China where Hunan Huasheng is
based, were climbing 15 percent a year although only now reaching $100 a month
for factory workers.
"They're going to go to higher-end goods whether they revalue or not," said
Peter Morici, a business professor at the University of Maryland.
And if the yuan did not rise, then Chinese exporters would have even more
profits to invest in developing high-end goods, Mr. Morici added.
But many executives say the appreciation of the currency, and especially the
uncertainty over how much further the yuan will climb, seems to be giving this
shift an extra push.
Of course, Chinese companies that raise prices and lose sales in response to
an appreciating yuan could eventually help close the American trade deficit with
China. The United States currently imports six times as much from China as it
exports there. Economists say that a nation's overall trade balance is more
important than any single deficit or surplus with an individual country.
China ran a global surplus of $23.18 billion in the first quarter of this
year, up from $16.48 billion in the quarter a year earlier. In contrast, the
United States ran an overall trade deficit of $134.33 billion for January and
February combined and has not yet released data for March.