Q1 economic data: what the economists say

(chinadaily.com.cn) Updated: 2015-04-16 11:15

Silver lining in service sector: Nomura

The silver lining lies in the further picking up of the share of the service sector in GDP, which indicates an improvement of the economic structure, said Zhao Yang, Nomura's chief economist in China.

According to Zhao, the tertiary sector output showed a 7.9 percent year-on-year growth in the first quarter, outpacing the secondary sector's 6.4 percent. It accounted for 51.6 percent of the GDP, up 3.4 percentage points from 48.2 percent in 2014.

The acceleration in household income should also help the economy to rebalance away from investment towards consumption, said Zhao.

However, the report also highlighted the increasing deflationary pressures from the first-quarter data, as the nominal GDP growth is weaker than real growth. He expects such pressure to continue on the investment side.

Another rate cut and further credit easing on the way: UBS Securities

UBS Securities expects the central bank to deliver another cut on benchmark interest rate and reserve requirement ratio, and to further ease other credit restrictions.

The financial institution projects GDP to grow 7.1 percent in the second quarter, showing a modest improvement, according to a note co-authored by UBS economists Harrison Hu, Wang Tao and Donna Kwok.

Key infrastructure projects in railway, water works, environment protection, energy and utilities are also expected to speed up construction and, together with other supportive measures, to buttress real activity from May, the economists wrote.

The report retained a full-year growth forecast of 6.8 percent, down from 7.4 percent in 2014, as such measures can only "provide a partial counterbalance to the unfolding structural property downturn".