Tipping Point

By ANDREW MOODY (China Daily) Updated: 2015-01-05 10:17

Wu, who was speaking in his office in the Guanghua campus, says it reflects a coming of age of Chinese companies.

Bala Ramasamy, professor of economics at the China Europe International Business School, or CEIBS, in Shanghai, who was speaking from Malaysia, agrees that it would be a significant event if China's ODI were to overtake FDI, but he is not yet confident it is part of a permanent trend.

"It is significant because over the last 30 years the main talk has been about the inflow of FDI into China but at the same time we should not jump into too much excitement."

One of the reasons why it is difficult to base firm conclusions on China's ODI data is that the overall statistics can be influenced by single deals.

The $15.1 billion acquisition by China's State-owned oil company CNOOC of Canadian oil and gas company Nexen, which had major assets in Uganda and was also a record Chinese ODI deal, made up a seventh of the value of China's overall ODI deals in 2013.

Chinese ODI also remains a small fraction, just 2.1 percent, of the overall investment in the Chinese economy, which was $5.1 trillion last year.

Despite overseas adventures, Chinese companies therefore still overwhelmingly prefer to invest in China than go overseas. Many believe this could all change and that one of the so-called China megatrends of the next five to 10 years could be Chinese companies going abroad to buy companies, particularly those with either technology or brands. Some forecasts suggest ODI could reach $172 billion by 2017.

There have been a number of major recent deals last year. In January, Lenovo announced it was buying Google's Motorola handset division for $2.91 billion.

There has also been a series of Chinese strategic stakes in companies throughout Europe and elsewhere.

Investments in Africa have also continued apace, with some under the reporting radar.

A survey of Chinese companies by the European Union Chamber of Chamber of Commerce in China asking Chinese companies their motives for operating their business in the EU, found that 47 percent of the 74 respondents did so to bolster their position in the Chinese market and a further 34 percent to take advantage of intellectual and research and development resources.

About 85 percent said they wanted to provide goods and services to the European market.

However, Peter Batey, chairman and co-founder of Vermilion Partners, a strategic advisory and private equity firm, based in Beijing, believes acquiring companies just to win in European markets will be less of a lure over the next few years.

Paul M. Cheng, chairman of Hong Kong-based private equity company China High Growth Fund and a former chairman of international trading conglomerate Inchcape Pacific, says companies are looking to speed up their development.

"They need to catch up. Their brand management capabilities are way behind those of European, American or even Japanese firms. They still tend to produce things and then just sell them rather than determine what consumers want," he says.

Jeffrey Towson, author of the One Hour China Book and also a former investment adviser to Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, the Saudi Arabian billionaire known as the "Arabian Warren Buffett", says many misunderstand the nature of Chinese companies going abroad.

"People say that Chinese companies are going global. They are actually not going global. They are still trying to win in China, and what they are doing is going out to get stuff to bring back," he says.

One of the reasons why China's ODI may suddenly accelerate is that its existing direct investment has reached the point where it will start regenerating itself, creating a snowball effect.

Those who have set up investments abroad will add to existing facilities and reinvest profits. It is an effect that countries such as the United Kingdom, France and Germany with investments in Africa and Asia that originated in the 19th century consistently benefit from.

By the end of 2013, China's cumulative stock of ODI had reached $660.5 billion, ranking it 11th in the world, two places ahead of its 2012 position.

Most of the Chinese mainland's ODI still goes to Asia (including Hong Kong), accounting for about $75.6 billion in 2013 or 70.1 percent of the total.

China's ODI to Europe was actually down 15.4 percent in 2013 at $5.95 billion while that to Africa rose by 33.7 percent to $3.37 billion.

China's ODI to Africa, although a small proportion of overall ODI, has perhaps attracted the most international attention.

Mergermarket Group, a Financial Times-owned consultancy, estimates Chinese ODI to Africa could already be nearer $20 billion than the official figures simply because of the huge number of private deals that often go unreported.

Much of this has been in the resources sector that has been vital for fueling the expansion of China's economy.

There is evidence of increasing change in the nature of African investment with a focus on setting up Chinese-owned manufacturing bases on the continent to take advantage of lower labor costs than in China.

Huajian Group, which has China bases in Dongguan in Guangdong and Ganzhou in Jiangxi, plans a $2.5 billion investment with the China-Africa Development Fund to add to its existing footwear factory near Addis Ababa.