Policy easing eyed as economic activity remains sluggish

(Xinhua) Updated: 2014-11-14 09:27

Production of the telecommunication and computer sector registered a sharp acceleration of 16.6 percent in September, but slowed to 12.2 percent in October.

However, analysts also see some positive signs in the latest figures.

"The slowdown in headline fixed asset investment actually masked a rebound in single monthly investment growth from an all-time low," according to the HSBC.

Infrastructure investment growth accelerated in the first 10 months and the property sector also showed some signs of life, as the contraction in sales eased, and investment growth rebounded.

Since mid-October, the National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic planner, has accelerated project approvals, including some railway and airport projects.

"In our view, this will help cushion the slowdown in property and manufacturing investment in the fourth quarter and prevent a collapse in investment into 2015," Chang Jian, Barclays chief China economist, said in a note.

Thus, Barclays lowered its full-year growth forecast for 2014 to 7.3 percent from 7.4 percent, but maintained a 7-percent forecast for 2015, Chang said.

China's GDP expanded at 7.3 percent in the third quarter of this year, down from 7.4 for the first half but still remained within the "reasonable range" set by policymakers.

"We maintain our call for two cuts in the benchmark interest rates, one in the fourth quarter and one in the first quarter of 2015," Chang said.

HSBC said it continued to expect more monetary and fiscal easing in the coming months.

Japan-based Nomura Securities also said in a note that it expected 50 basis points of reserve requirement ratio cuts this quarter and in each subsequent quarter through the fourth quarter of 2015.