Insight

Will India's growing population threaten development?

(chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2010-07-13 15:48

A report by the Indian government saying that the country will "overtake China to become the world's most populous nation within the next 16 years" provoked a clash between its population experts and leading commentators over whether the rise will help or hinder the country's remarkable growth story, according to an article in the Telegraph on July 12.

Dr Amarjeet Singh of the National Population Stabilization Fund, author of the report, warned that "becoming the world's most populous country will trap several hundred million Indians in poverty," and with the current growth pace, India will double its population in 50 years, making sustainable development unattainable, said the article.

His report also said "economic insecurity" among poor people led to "high rates of teenage pregnancies." Girls who leave school early will more likely become teenage mothers, the report said.

But Dr Singh's report for the Ministry of Heath and Family Welfare was "denounced by rival experts and commentators who said a growing nation could pay a ‘demographic dividend' of even higher economic growth," according to the article.

AR Nanda, executive director of the Population Foundation of India and former commissioner of India's census, believes that "India will reap a demographic dividend of high economic growth over the next 25 years, providing the country invest in human resources and health." There will be "an economic surge," he said.

Pavan K Varma, one of India's most influential social commentators, said in the article that "India already produces 160,000 newly qualified engineers and more than one million technicians every year, which will increase as its population and investment in education rise. The increasing education opportunities and the rise in access to television were already slowing the population growth rate."