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China's population to peak at 1.5b in 2030s

By Liu Li (China Daily)
Updated: 2006-06-23 09:20

Approved by the State Council,  the report aimed to investigate population development trends, as well as the relationship between population, the economy, resources and the environment.

More than 300 scholars, including 11 academicians, spent two years compiling the report, which also involved more than 70 governmental departments and organizations.
Their research won an award yesterday at a national conference on population and family planning.

"China has now entered its fourth birth peak," said Jiang Fan, vice-director of the National Population and Family Planning Commission, yesterday. The previous three peaks occured in 1949, 1962 and 1987.

China's population stood at 1.307 billion in late 2005, according to census figures.

The research report urged the government not to change current population policies.

In the coming 30 years the average fertility rate will be about 1.8 children for every woman, it said.

"A higher or lower fertility rate is not beneficial for economic and social development in China," it added.

China's labour forces will become the largest in history in the next 30 years, said Chen Li, director of the national population development strategy research project.